I was just talking to one of my friends, and the following scenario just came up: Ron Paul has no chance of being nominated by the Republicans, leaving the possibility of an independent run. Additionally, the probability that Mike Bloomberg might run is not equal to zero. So what would happen if there was the typical Democrat and Republican candidate, and additionally these two independents?
I figured that with the caucuses on our doorstep, the time for wild political speculation is now! I'm guessing my ability to predict the political future is as good as anyone else's.
2008-01-03
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Go figure, while it might not be Ron Paul or Bloomberg, there's a four way race. There's Nader, the once spoiler for the Democrats, Barack Obama, the Democrat, John McCain, the Republican and most interestingly Bob Barr, who could be a potential game ruiner for the Republicans.
It's going to be interesting to see how many people write in Paul and Clinton, and how many votes the Libertarians and Independents pull it. My guess is, probably around 5 million between the four.
My guess is that Nader just doesn't matter at this point. I don't think the Paul and Clinton write-ins would be much of a spoiler, either. Bob Barr... he might be a dealbreaker for McCain, but we'll have to see. I haven't been hearing much about him.
I think the interesting thing now is Obama's decision not to use public money. Assuming he can raise assloads of money in order to campaign in red states will make the contest very exciting and possibly even more democratic. Maybe my vote would have counted in NC after all.
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